It’s no secret that there are some major players lining up to get a slice of the smartphone / operating system market, but reading this article on Stuff got me thinking.
Who are the players and what are their strengths? What will the environment look like that they are competing in and how will this play to those strengths, or work against them?
The following has to be qualified by the fact that I’m most definitely not an authority on this stuff, these are just my (potentially flawed) observations as a casual observer.
THE PLAYERS
To my mind there are five main players at this point: Apple (iOS), Google (Android), RIM (Blackberry), Nokia (Symbian) and now Microsoft (Windows Phone 7). Microsoft are the latest to the party with WP7 seemingly regarded as their first credible foray into a smartphone OS.
Apple’s iPhone might not have been the first phone designated as smart, but it certainly was the first to really capture mainstream interest in the devices. The inbult Apple fanbase, slick marketing department, the “app store” and undeniable leap forward in user interface combined to really fire the public’s imagination, and that of the mainstream media. Suddenly it was more than just “geeks” that wanted a phone that could do more.
Of the incumbent players, Nokia is seemingly suffering the most from the smartphone revolution. I’ve owned a couple of Nokias, although none that could be considered smart, and I’ve always enjoyed the user experience in the main. Their current problems seem to be the result of trying to play catch up with the sea-change brought about by the iPhone. One are where they seem to be struggling is with the hardware – Nokia just can’t seem to come up with something that matches the iPhone for looks and performance. Without desirable handsets and competitive brand, Nokia will struggle to survive on the quality of their OS alone. It’s interesting to note that Nokia are basically in crisis mode despite still holding a majority share of the market.
Google are the up-and-comers in the market. Their Android OS is reportedly gaining market share at a faster rate than the competition. One of the central selling points that Google are promoting is the open nature of the platform. Interestingly their decision to be carrier agnostic in the USA has been a significant contributor to gaining a foothold in the market.
Microsoft are potentially onto a good thing with Windows Phone 7, so long as they can avoid tripping over their own feet. WP7 has been well received judging by the reviews that I’ve read, but Microsoft will need to avoid bloating the OS trying to make it compatible with MS-everything. I remember hearing a developer from Microsoft speaking at a conference once saying that they had the interoperability challenge with everything that they developed, with every department in the organisation having a finger in the pie. If this happens to WP7 it could be game over.
RIM are probably the odd man out in this equation. A recent (admittedly unscientific) impromptu Twitter survey by @nzben found that only one person out of around 70 said that they’d choose a Blackberry over an iPhone or Android phone, with the caveat “only if I required secure email”. Businesses love the Blackberry though, as it is the easiest option for the IT department to set up in many cases.
TRUST & SAFETY
The biggest single difference between Apple’s OS and Google’s appears to be a philosophical one: Apple’s “walled garden“, where they rigidly control the user experience, vs Google’s open approach that mimics the internet’s wild west. On the face of it this is a point that should work in Apple’s favour. They can be sure that nobody will ever deliver a substandard application or piece of hardware that could tarnish their image. Apple fans can usually distil their appreciation into a single phrase: “it just works”. Conversely, Google can’t promise that you won’t buy an Android phone that’s running an old version of the software and can’t be upgraded, or one with all manner of phone company alterations. They can’t guarantee that you’ll get a handset that is well built, works quickly and is easy to operate. The strength of Google’s challenge comes not from what it can offer the consumer, but from what it can offer to phone companies and carriers.
Already we can see Android appearing on phones that cost below $200, and that’s New Zealand dollars, not greenbacks. Google are prepared to spread their OS far and wide, and mobile makers and carriers are only too happy to ride on their brand recognition. Many consumers buy phones with a minimum of research, and being able to associate their products with household name must be an attractive marketing carrot.
I suspect that once Android well and truly takes off, malicious apps will start to become a big problem in the same way that phishing and other emails and websites are an issue for web users now. It’s difficult to know whether the consumer will seek refuge inside Apple’s walled garden or take their chances, much as they do now with the internet. Given the general lack of knowledge among consumers about these issues currently, it’s quite possible that it will be the latter, especially at the low price points.
OPEN
If Google has a point of difference to sell to consumers, it is openness. As previously mentioned, this isn’t something that the mainstream population will be likely to care about, but it will appeal to the segment of the community that values this trait. There’s a community of developers that will enjoy being able to craft apps that they can sell without going through Apple’s reportedly draconian vetting process. They can even mess with the Android source code if they want to. That could be a powerful attraction for some.
THE FUTURE
So what does the future look like in all of this? I believe that the smartphone is simply an evolutionary step, much like CDs replacing cassettes. Eventually when you go to buy a phone, it’ll be smart by default. Gadget lovers will continue to pursue high end options like the iPhone or HTC’s Android-powered Desire HD.
Interestingly enough, Microsoft could stand to be the dark horse that spoils Apple and Google’s two horse race. They cover the middle ground between the extremes of Google and Apple. It could be argued that Nokia also fit this niche, but they’re yet to produce something to recapture the imagination of the public. Microsoft may not be popular among many technical people; however, like Google, it’s a household name, and that name recognition could prove beneficial. Windows Phone 7 will also be likely to follow Android onto a succession of entry-level phones, helping Microsoft to cement its foothold in the market. Microsoft currently set minimum hardware standards for their PC operating systems, but Vista in particular showed that they’re somewhat generous with those standards. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this continue in the mobile market.
My prediction is that Google will become the dominant player in the market as it engages Microsoft in a battle for the low-to-medium level phones. Both will compete with Apple in the high end market, but Apple will eventually wind up relegated to a niche market, albeit a large one. Nokia will continue to slide and may well end up battling for survival. They may even succumb eventually to using Android or WP7 and concentrate on producing quality handsets again. RIM is likely to continue in the business niche for as long as email is the dominant method of corporate communication.
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